Nigeria 2–1 Madagascar: Iwobi Pulls the Strings as Ilenikhena and Usor Deliver
Deduction Football Intelligence
Intelligence Dept.
AFCON Qualification | Group L — Round 1 | 25 September 2026
Nigeria began their Africa Cup of Nations qualifying campaign with a 2–1 victory over Madagascar, but the final score tells only part of the story.
The Super Eagles produced 22 shots to Madagascar's four, 18 attempts from inside the penalty area and 71 final-third entries, yet had to settle for a one-goal victory.
George Ilenikhena found the net after being given an opportunity in Nigeria's attack, while substitute Moses Usor also scored after replacing Samuel Chukwueze in the 61st minute.
Behind them, Alex Iwobi produced the highest individual match rating at 8.1, while Calvin Bassey delivered another commanding performance in possession.
The three points were secured. The underlying data, however, shows both encouraging signs and an obvious area for improvement: finishing.
Nigeria Controlled the Match
The territorial numbers strongly favoured Nigeria.
Nigeria had only a modest advantage in possession at 55% to 45%, but what they did with that possession was considerably more important.
The Super Eagles recorded 71 final-third entries, almost twice Madagascar's 36.
They completed 114 passes in the final third, compared with Madagascar's 33, and had 34 touches inside the opposition penalty area to Madagascar's six.
Madagascar's 25 clearances compared with Nigeria's nine provide another indication of where much of the match was being played.
This was not sterile possession.
Nigeria repeatedly got the ball into attacking areas.
22 Shots, But Only Four on Target
That dominance raises perhaps the biggest question from the performance:
Should Nigeria have won by considerably more?
The Super Eagles attempted 22 shots.
Eighteen were taken from inside the penalty area.
But only four of the 22 attempts were on target.
Nigeria also created four big chances and missed three of them.
Nigeria's Attacking Numbers
22 total shots
18 shots inside the box
4 shots on target
4 big chances
3 big chances missed
34 opposition-box touches
71 final-third entries
2 goals
Nigeria generated the volume and consistently reached high-value attacking areas. Turning those situations into a greater number of accurate attempts remains an obvious area for improvement.
The fact that Madagascar remained within one goal despite facing 22 attempts illustrates the difference between attacking dominance and attacking efficiency.
Alex Iwobi: Nigeria's Creative Controller
Match rating: 8.1
Alex Iwobi produced the highest rating of any Nigerian player.
His influence was not limited to his assist.
Iwobi created two of Nigeria's four big chances and supplied four key passes.
Iwobi vs Madagascar
- 1 assist
- 2 big chances created
- 4 key passes
- 55/62 accurate passes — 89%
- 39/45 passes in opposition half — 87%
- 5/6 accurate long balls — 83%
- 9 recoveries
- 25 carries
- 111.9m total progression
- 2 progressive carries
- 35.9m progressive carrying distance
Iwobi provided the connection between Nigeria's possession and its attacking output.
His combination of passing security, chance creation and ball progression made him Deduction's Star Performer.
Calvin Bassey: Nigeria's Progression Machine
Match rating: 7.6
Calvin Bassey's numbers were exceptional for a centre-back.
He completed 84 of 89 passes (94%), including 56 of 61 in the opposition half.
But the carrying numbers are particularly noteworthy.
Bassey accumulated 354.7 metres of carrying distance and 235 metres of total progression from 45 carries.
Bassey vs Madagascar
- 106 touches
- 84/89 passes — 94%
- 28/28 passes in own half — 100%
- 56/61 passes in opposition half — 92%
- 45 carries
- 354.7m carrying distance
- 235m total progression
- 1 big chance created
- 1 key pass
- 2/2 tackles won
- 2 interceptions
- 7 recoveries
- 6/6 ground duels won
His 106 touches were the highest recorded among Nigeria's listed players.
Most impressive was his perfect 6/6 ground-duel record alongside 2/2 successful tackles.
Bassey was not simply defending. He was one of Nigeria's primary mechanisms for moving the ball up the pitch.
George Ilenikhena Takes His Opportunity
Match rating: 7.5
George Ilenikhena was selected in attack and responded with a goal.
His involvement was concentrated almost entirely around finishing.
Ilenikhena registered only 15 touches, yet attempted five shots — more than any other Nigerian player.
Ilenikhena vs Madagascar
- 1 goal
- 5 shots
- 2 shots on target
- 2 big chances missed
- 6/7 passes — 86%
- 2 progressive carries
The two missed big chances show there was room for an even bigger return.
But getting into enough dangerous positions to attempt five shots and leaving with a goal represents an important contribution.
Moses Usor Makes His Impact From the Bench
Match rating: 7.7
One of the most interesting performances came from a substitute.
Moses Usor replaced Samuel Chukwueze after 61 minutes and scored.
Usor produced two shots, put one on target and completed his only attempted dribble.
He also carried the ball 114.4 metres from nine carries, including two progressive carries.
Usor vs Madagascar
- 1 goal
- 2 shots
- 1 shot on target
- 1/1 successful dribbles
- 9 carries
- 114.4m carrying distance
- 2 progressive carries
- 40.9m progressive carrying distance
- 3 recoveries
His passing numbers — 5/9 — were less impressive, but his role was about directness rather than controlling possession.
He provided it.
With competition for attacking positions increasing, producing a goal from the bench gives Usor a strong early marker.
Chukwueze Created Before Usor Finished
Samuel Chukwueze's 6.9 rating does not immediately stand out, but his chance-creation numbers do.
Before leaving after 61 minutes, Chukwueze registered five key passes and created one big chance.
He also completed four of ten crosses and three of seven attempted dribbles.
However, there was a trade-off.
Chukwueze lost possession 20 times, illustrating the risk associated with his high-volume creative role.
The substitution also produced an interesting dynamic: the player replacing him, Usor, subsequently scored.
That gives Nigeria another option to consider as the qualification campaign develops.
Ndidi Provides the Midfield Platform
Wilfred Ndidi finished with a 7.0 rating and produced eight defensive contributions.
He won three tackles, made two interceptions and recorded five recoveries while completing 58 of 63 passes (92%).
Ndidi also attempted three shots and missed one big chance.
His defensive work helped Nigeria recover possession quickly enough to sustain pressure, contributing to the team's 54 recoveries.
Semi Ajayi Adds an Assist From Defence
Semi Ajayi recorded a 6.8 rating but made a decisive attacking contribution with an assist.
The centre-back also completed 49 of 53 passes (92%), made five defensive contributions and accumulated 59.5 metres of progression.
Alongside Bassey, Ajayi helped give Nigeria a secure platform from which to build attacks.
Nigeria Player Ratings
Deduction Analysis: Dominance With Room for Greater Efficiency
The strongest conclusion from the data is that Nigeria successfully established themselves in attacking territory.
The Super Eagles registered:
71 final-third entries.
34 touches in the Madagascar penalty area.
18 shots from inside the box.
Four big chances.
Those numbers indicate a team capable of repeatedly progressing possession into dangerous areas.
The concern is what happened after getting there.
Only four of Nigeria's 22 shots were on target, while three of their four big chances were missed.
That meant a match Nigeria largely controlled remained competitive until the end.
It is an important distinction.
Nigeria did not struggle to reach the final third. They did not struggle to enter the penalty area. They did not struggle to generate shooting opportunities.
They struggled to turn their attacking volume into enough goals.
Deduction Verdict
Nigeria start Group L with three points and several encouraging individual performances.
Iwobi created.
Bassey progressed.
Ilenikhena scored.
Usor came from the bench and delivered.
But the broader team data provides the most important takeaway.
22 shots.
18 inside the box.
4 big chances.
3 big chances missed.
2 goals.
The attacking structure produced opportunities.
The next step is making more of them.
DEDUCTION
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