Focus on Africa at the World Cup 2026 Sweden 5–1 Tunisia: Mistakes Punish the Eagles of Carthage
Deduction AI
Intelligence Dept.
Tunisia’s World Cup campaign began with a painful 5-1 defeat to Sweden in Monterrey, Mexico.
On paper, the scoreline suggests total Swedish dominance. But the data tells a more complex story. Tunisia had more possession, more final-third entries, won more duels and made more tackles. The difference was not effort or territory.
The difference was execution.
Sweden were clinical. Tunisia were punished for mistakes.
Omar Rekik scored Tunisia’s only goal in the 43rd minute, assisted by Hannibal Mejbri.
Match Overview
Metric
Sweden
Tunisia
Possession
49%
51%
Expected Goals
1.33
0.28
Big Chances
4
0
Total Shots
13
6
Shots on Target
7
2
Final Third Entries
47
63
Ground Duels Won
26/62
36/62
Errors Leading to Goal
0
4
Goals Prevented
-0.65
-2.88
Tunisia progressed the ball into advanced areas, but Sweden created the better chances and punished every major error.
Deduction Man of the Match: Hannibal Mejbri
Hannibal Mejbri was Tunisia’s standout performer.
- Match rating: 7.2
- Assist: 1
- xA: 0.19
- Key passes: 3
- Accurate long balls: 7/14
- Successful dribbles: 2/2
- Ground duels won: 10/12
- Touches: 74
- Carries: 33
- Total carrying distance: 282.5m
- Total progression: 107.1m
Hannibal was Tunisia’s main creative outlet and the player most capable of turning possession into threat.
Tunisia Goalscorer: Omar Rekik
Rekik gave Tunisia their best moment of the match.
- Match rating: 6.8
- Goal: 1
- xG: 0.03
- xGOT: 0.33
- Ground duels won: 3/3
- Aerial duels won: 2/2
- Total progression: 151.3m
His 43rd-minute finish was Tunisia’s only reward on a difficult day.
Defensive Positives
Montassar Talbi
- Match rating: 7.0
- Defensive contributions: 10
- Clearances: 5
- Blocked shots: 3
- Aerial duels won: 3/3
- Clearance off line: 1
- Pass accuracy: 36/38
Amine Ben Hmida
- Match rating: 6.9
- Recoveries: 10
- Ground duels won: 6/6
- Tackles won: 3/5
- Last-man tackle: 1
- Pass accuracy: 46/50
- Total progression: 202.2m
Both defenders produced strong individual numbers despite the team conceding five.
What Went Wrong?
1. Goalkeeping Collapse
Abdelmouhib Chamakh had a difficult game.
- Match rating: 3.7
- Saves: 1
- Goals prevented: -2.88
- Errors leading to goal: 2
- Pass accuracy: 58%
Two direct goalkeeping errors shifted the match heavily in Sweden’s favour.
2. Four Errors Leading to Goals
Tunisia recorded four errors leading directly to goals. At World Cup level, that is fatal.
The key difference was not possession or effort. It was decision-making under pressure.
3. No Big Chances Created
Tunisia had 63 final-third entries but produced:
- 0 big chances
- 0.28 xG
- only 2 shots inside the box
The final pass and attacking sharpness were missing.
Other Notable Performers
Elias Saad
- Match rating: 6.5
- xA: 0.14
- Accurate crosses: 1/1
- Accurate long balls: 2/2
- Progressive carries: 3
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
- Match rating: 6.6
- Passes: 6/6
- Tackles won: 2/2
- Ground duels won: 2/2
Sebastian Tounekti
- Match rating: 6.3
- Progressive carries: 3
- Progressive carrying distance: 65.1m
Deduction Top Five Tunisia Performers
Rank
Player
Rating
1
Hannibal Mejbri
7.2
2
Montassar Talbi
7.0
3
Amine Ben Hmida
6.9
4
Omar Rekik
6.8
5
Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud
6.6
Deduction Verdict
Tunisia’s 5-1 defeat was damaging, but it was not a complete tactical collapse. They had more possession, more final-third entries and won the duel battle.
The problem was quality in both boxes.
Sweden created four big chances. Tunisia created none. Sweden made no errors leading to goals. Tunisia made four.
That is the story of the match.
Tunisia must now respond quickly. The performances of Hannibal Mejbri, Montassar Talbi, Omar Rekik and Amine Ben Hmida offer positives, but the team cannot survive another game with this level of individual error.
Deduction Team Rating: 4.8/10
Deduction – The Home of African Football Intelligence
