Based on the opening matches, Japan enter this game as clear favourites despite drawing 2-2 with the Netherlands, while Tunisia are under significant pressure after their heavy 5-1 defeat to Sweden.

Head-to-Head Form Comparison

Metric

Tunisia vs Sweden

Japan vs Netherlands

Possession

51%

40%

xG

0.28

0.59

Shots

6

10

Shots on Target

2

3

Big Chances

0

Not officially recorded but converted efficiently

Final Third Entries

63

49

Ground Duels Won

58%

46%

Goalkeeper Performance

-2.88 Goals Prevented

+0.16 Goals Prevented

Errors Leading to Goals

4

0

Where Japan Have the Advantage

1. Defensive Organisation

Japan frustrated one of Europe's strongest teams.

Against the Netherlands:

• Only 0.59 xG conceded from open play situations.
• Forced the Dutch into crossing situations.
• Goalkeeper produced 4 saves and 2 big saves.
• No errors leading to goals.

Tunisia meanwhile:

• Committed 4 errors leading directly to goals.
• Conceded 5 goals from 1.33 xG.
• Goalkeeper recorded a disastrous -2.88 goals prevented.

This is the biggest mismatch in the game.

2. Transition Threat

Japan are comfortable without possession.

Against the Netherlands they managed:

• 10 shots
• 49 final-third entries
• 83 sprints
• Efficient counterattacks

Tunisia's high defensive line was repeatedly exposed by Sweden and could face similar problems against Japan's quick transitions.

3. Goalkeeping

Japan:

• +0.16 goals prevented

Tunisia:

• -2.88 goals prevented

That swing alone represents nearly three goals.

Where Tunisia Can Hurt Japan

Hannibal Mejbri

Tunisia's standout performer.

Against Sweden:

• Rating: 7.2
• 1 assist
• 3 key passes
• 10/12 ground duels won
• 33 carries
• 282.5 metres carrying distance

He remains Tunisia's main creative outlet.

Omar Rekik

One of Tunisia's few positives.

• Goal scored
• Won 100% of ground duels
• Won 100% of aerial duels
• Progressive carrying from defence

Physical Duels

Tunisia won:

• 55% of overall duels
• 58% of ground duels

If they can turn the match into a physical contest rather than an open game, they have a chance.

Key Battle

Hannibal Mejbri vs Japan's Midfield

If Hannibal receives space between the lines, Tunisia can create opportunities.

If Japan successfully compress the midfield as they did against the Netherlands, Tunisia may struggle to generate chances.

What Tunisia Must Improve

1. Eliminate defensive mistakes.
2. Stay compact between midfield and defence.
3. Reduce offsides (6 against Sweden).
4. Protect goalkeeper Chamakh from high-quality chances.
5. Convert possession into shots.

Tunisia had:

• 51% possession
• 63 final-third entries

Yet generated only:

• 0.28 xG
• 6 shots

That is not enough at World Cup level.

Deduction Match Projection

Expected Possession

• Japan 55%
• Tunisia 45%

Expected xG

• Japan 1.4
• Tunisia 0.7

Key Performers

• Japan goalkeeper
• Japan midfield transition unit
• Hannibal Mejbri
• Omar Rekik

Deduction Prediction

Tunisia 1-2 Japan

Tunisia scorer: Hannibal Mejbri (assist or goal involvement likely)

Japan scorers: Two goals generated from transitions and defensive errors.

Probability Model

• Japan win: 58%
• Draw: 25%
• Tunisia win: 17%

Deduction Verdict

Tunisia showed encouraging signs in possession and duels against Sweden, but the defensive errors and goalkeeping issues are major concerns. Japan arrive with confidence after matching the Netherlands and look far more balanced defensively.

Predicted Result: Tunisia 1-2 Japan

Deduction Confidence Level: 7.5/10

Player to Watch: Hannibal Mejbri – Tunisia's best performer in the opening match and their most likely source of creativity.