Deduction Prediction Czechia vs South Africa FIFA World Cup 2026 – Group Stage
Deduction AI
Intelligence Dept.
After opening defeats, both teams enter this match knowing that anything less than victory could leave their qualification hopes hanging by a thread.
South Africa were beaten 2-0 by Mexico, while Czechia suffered a 2-1 defeat against South Korea. The statistics from both matches provide an interesting insight into what could be a tightly contested encounter.
Form Guide
Czechia 1–2 South Korea
The Czechs spent large periods defending against a dominant South Korean side.
Key Numbers
Stat
Czechia
Possession
38%
xG
0.83
Shots
7
Shots on Target
3
Distance Covered
108.3 km
Sprints
101
Final Third Pass Accuracy
51%
Long Ball Accuracy
33%
Ground Duels Won
63%
Recoveries
46
Despite losing, Czechia remained competitive physically and won a higher percentage of ground duels than South Korea.
However, they struggled to create chances and produced only one big chance throughout the game.
South Africa 0–2 Mexico
Bafana Bafana were outplayed territorially but remained in the contest for long periods.
Key Numbers
Stat
South Africa
Possession
39%
xG
0.07
Shots
3
Shots on Target
2
Distance Covered
N/A
Ground Duels Won
45%
Recoveries
44
Final Third Entries
39
Long Ball Accuracy
37%
The biggest concern for South Africa was the lack of attacking threat.
An xG of 0.07 is among the lowest recorded by any team in the opening round.
Tactical Match-Up
Czechia Advantages
Physical Presence
Czechia dominated aerial duels against South Korea despite facing sustained pressure.
- Aerial duels won: 37%
- Ground duels won: 63%
- Recoveries: 46
Against a South African side that struggled physically against Mexico, this could become decisive.
Better Chance Creation
- Czechia xG: 0.83
- South Africa xG: 0.07
The Czech attack created significantly more danger in their opening match.
South Africa Advantages
Midfield Quality
The trio of:
- Teboho Mokoena
- Jayden Adams
- Siphephelo Sithole
possess the technical ability to control possession if South Africa can improve their build-up play.
Goalkeeping
Ronwen Williams remains one of Africa's most reliable goalkeepers and could be decisive in a tight contest.
Key Battle
Ronwen Williams vs Czechia's Attack
South Africa's goalkeeper prevented additional damage against Mexico despite facing repeated pressure.
If Czechia generate another xG close to 1.0, Williams may again be called upon to keep South Africa alive.
Deduction Data Model
Using:
- Expected goals
- Shot quality
- Defensive metrics
- Recovery numbers
- Duel success
- Ball progression
- World Cup experience
the model produces:
Outcome
Probability
Czechia Win
42%
Draw
33%
South Africa Win
25%
Predicted Score
Czechia 1–0 South Africa
Likely Scenario
- Czechia remain compact and physical.
- South Africa improve on their Mexico performance.
- Chances remain limited.
- One set-piece or transition moment decides the game.
Deduction Players to Watch
Czechia
- Target forward (aerial threat)
- Central midfield duel winner
- Set-piece specialists
South Africa
- Ronwen Williams
- Teboho Mokoena
- Jayden Adams
- Oswin Appollis
Deduction Verdict
South Africa's performance against Mexico suggested they remain competitive defensively, but the lack of attacking production is a concern.
Czechia were outplayed by South Korea but still generated significantly more attacking threat than Bafana Bafana managed in their opener.
Unless South Africa show major improvement in chance creation, Czechia enter the match as slight favourites.
Deduction Prediction:
Czechia 1–0 South Africa
Win Probability
- Czechia: 42%
- Draw: 33%
- South Africa: 25%
Most Likely Goalscorer: Czechia striker from a set-piece or aerial situation.
Confidence Level: 6.5/10.
Compare Czechia stats against that of South Africa
Czechia vs South Africa – Head-to-Head Statistical Comparison
Based on their opening World Cup performances, Czechia produced a stronger attacking display, while South Africa showed slightly better defensive organisation in open play but struggled badly in possession and chance creation.
Category
Czechia vs South Korea
South Africa vs Mexico
Possession
38%
39%
Expected Goals (xG)
0.83
0.07
Total Shots
7
3
Shots on Target
3
2
Big Chances
1
0
Touches in Opposition Box
12
2
Final Third Entries
55
39
Accurate Passes
230
272
Long Ball Accuracy
33%
37%
Cross Accuracy
20%
13%
Ground Duels Won
43%
45%
Aerial Duels Won
37%
32%
Recoveries
46
44
Clearances
21
17
Goalkeeper Saves
4
2
Goals Prevented
+0.06
-0.72
Distance Covered
108.3 km
N/A
Sprints
101
N/A
Attacking Comparison
Czechia
- Generated 12 touches inside the South Korean penalty area.
- Created one big chance.
- Produced 0.83 xG, almost twelve times South Africa's total.
- Recorded 7 shots and 3 shots on target.
South Africa
- Only 3 shots all game.
- Just 2 touches inside Mexico's box.
- Failed to create a single big chance.
- Generated only 0.07 xG.
Deduction Verdict
Massive advantage Czechia.
The Czechs looked capable of scoring. South Africa barely threatened.
Attacking Edge: Czechia 8/10 – South Africa 3/10
Possession & Build-Up
Interestingly, South Africa completed more passes despite having similar possession.
South Africa
- 272 accurate passes.
- Teboho Mokoena completed 93% of his passes.
- Ime Okon completed 92%.
- Nkosinathi Sibisi completed 82%.
Czechia
- 230 accurate passes.
- Relied more heavily on direct football.
- Only 51% pass success in the final third.
Deduction Verdict
South Africa circulated the ball better but struggled to progress it into dangerous areas.
Build-Up Edge: Slight South Africa
Defensive Comparison
Czechia
- Faced 15 shots.
- Goalkeeper made 4 saves.
- Conceded 2 goals.
- Allowed 2.30 xG.
South Africa
- Faced 16 shots.
- Goalkeeper made only 2 saves.
- Conceded 2 goals.
- Allowed 1.46 xG.
However:
- South Africa committed an error leading directly to a goal.
- Siphephelo Sithole committed an error leading to a goal.
- Ronwen Williams recorded -0.72 goals prevented.
Deduction Verdict
Neither defence was particularly convincing, but Czechia faced a stronger attacking performance from South Korea and still remained competitive.
Defensive Edge: Slight Czechia
Physical Battle
Czechia
- Covered 108.3 km.
- Won 43% of ground duels.
- Won 37% of aerial duels.
South Africa
- Won 45% of ground duels.
- Won only 32% of aerial duels.
South Africa's weakness in the air could become a major problem if Czechia target crosses and set pieces.
Physical Edge: Czechia
Key Players Comparison
Czechia's Strengths
- Goalkeeper (4 saves).
- Strong aerial presence.
- Better attacking output.
- Greater final-third penetration.
South Africa's Strengths
- Ronwen Williams remains capable of match-winning performances despite a difficult opener.
- Teboho Mokoena was South Africa's best passer.
- Jayden Adams provided the most progressive attacking moments.
Deduction Match Index
Area
Winner
Attack
Czechia
Chance Creation
Czechia
Final Third Play
Czechia
Passing Control
South Africa
Defensive Organisation
Czechia
Aerial Ability
Czechia
Physicality
Czechia
Goalkeeping
Czechia (based on Match 1 output)
Overall Deduction Score
Czechia: 56%
South Africa: 44%
The numbers suggest Czechia have shown more evidence of being able to score and compete against stronger opposition. South Africa's biggest issue is that their attack produced almost nothing against Mexico. Unless Bafana Bafana significantly improve their attacking output, Czechia should enter the match as narrow favourites. The statistical profile supports a likely 1-0 or 1-1 result, with Czechia holding a slight edge.
