This is arguably the most important match in Group K. Colombia can virtually secure qualification with a victory, while DR Congo can put themselves in a strong position after their impressive 1-1 draw with Portugal.

Recent Form

Colombia

• Beat Uzbekistan 3-1
• xG: 1.61
• 15 shots
• 4 big chances
• 61% possession
• 89 final-third entries

Colombia looked dangerous going forward but were occasionally exposed in transition. Their attacking quality ultimately overwhelmed Uzbekistan.

DR Congo

• Drew 1-1 with Portugal
• xG: 0.87 vs Portugal's 0.65
• Only 25% possession
• Won 58% of ground duels
• Registered more shots than Portugal (8 vs 7)

DR Congo produced one of the surprise performances of the tournament. Despite spending most of the match without the ball, they created the better chances and looked dangerous on the counterattack.

Key Tactical Battle

Colombia's Possession vs DR Congo's Transitions

Portugal completed 724 accurate passes against DR Congo but still failed to win.

That tells us DR Congo are extremely comfortable defending deep and attacking directly through:

• Yoane Wissa
• Cédric Bakambu
• Arthur Masuaku

Wissa and Bakambu combined for:

• 4 shots
• Strong ball carrying
• Dangerous transition attacks

Colombia will dominate possession, but they cannot afford the same defensive lapses Portugal suffered.

Players Likely to Decide the Match

DR Congo

Yoane Wissa

• Goal against Portugal
• xG 0.42
• 10.3 km covered
• 16 sprints

Aaron Wan-Bissaka

• 10 defensive contributions
• 7 clearances
• Last-man tackle

Arthur Masuaku

• Assist
• 2 key passes
• 1 big chance created

Colombia

The South Americans possess superior attacking depth and created four big chances against Uzbekistan. Their ability to generate repeated entries into the penalty area remains their biggest advantage.

Statistical Comparison

Category

Colombia

DR Congo

Previous Match xG

1.61

0.87

Shots

15

8

Big Chances

4

1

Possession

61%

25%

Final Third Entries

89

35

Ground Duels Won

54%

58%

Deduction Match Model

Win Probability

• Colombia: 52%
• Draw: 27%
• DR Congo: 21%

Expected Goals

• Colombia: 1.7
• DR Congo: 1.0

Predicted Score

Colombia 2-1 DR Congo

Likely Goalscorers

• Yoane Wissa
• Colombia attacker from open play
• Colombia late winner

Deduction Verdict

DR Congo have already shown they can frustrate elite opposition and may actually be more dangerous in transition than Uzbekistan. However, Colombia possess greater creativity, more sustained attacking pressure, and enough quality in the final third to eventually break through.

Deduction Confidence Rating: 7/10

Prediction: Colombia 2-1 DR Congo

I can also Show me the Group K standings, Predict Colombia vs Portugal, Assess DR Congo's qualification chances, or Build the full Group K projection.