Senegal have been the stronger team statistically despite conceding six goals.

Senegal are creating significantly more attacking opportunities and play with much higher intensity.

Areas of concern

Neither side has defended well.

Senegal

• 6 goals conceded
• 2 errors leading directly to goals
• 3 errors leading to shots
• Only one clean sheet opportunity lost through defensive mistakes

Iraq

• 7 goals conceded
• 3 errors leading directly to goals
• Only 0.5 shots on target produced per game

Iraq's inability to create chances is their biggest weakness.

Tactical outlook

Senegal

Expect Senegal to:

• Dominate possession (around 55-60%)
• Press aggressively
• Attack down both wings
• Create more chances through dribbling and quick passing

Iraq

Iraq are likely to:

• Sit deep
• Defend with numbers
• Look for crosses and counter-attacks
• Target set pieces

Key statistical battles

Attacking threat

• Senegal: 11 shots per game
• Iraq: 7.5

Chance quality

• Senegal: 2.5 big chances
• Iraq: 1.0

Defensive resilience

Both teams concede over three goals per game, but Iraq create very little going forward.

Where Senegal can win

1. Superior midfield possession.
2. Much higher pressing intensity (130.5 sprints vs 82).
3. Better passing quality.
4. Greater creativity in the final third.
5. Iraq average just 0.5 shots on target per match, making it difficult for them to punish Senegal consistently.

Biggest concern for Senegal

Their defence.

Conceding six goals in two matches and committing costly defensive errors means they cannot afford lapses in concentration. If they eliminate those mistakes, they should control the game.

Qualification outlook

If Senegal win:

• Strong chance of progressing, depending on the other group result and goal difference.

If Senegal draw:

• Qualification becomes unlikely unless results elsewhere are highly favourable.

If Senegal lose:

• They are almost certainly eliminated.

Predicted Match Statistics

Senegal 3–1 Iraq

Qualification probability as a best third-placed team (if they win): approximately 50–65%, depending on results in the other groups. A two- or three-goal victory would significantly improve their chances because goal difference is likely to separate teams tied on three points.